This article gives us insights based on a study that unfortunately does not take into account certain things. The scenarios could be coherent if there was not the Transposition of the Tobacco Directive which obviously will distort all this. It is clear that the positioning of the tobacco industry will be "active" in view of the investment implemented for some time. Nobody can predict what will happen after May 2016, but there is one piece of data that seems correct, which is that in the end it is indeed the small shops and the independents who risk not taking the shock. Will there be a collapse of the vaping market? Will there be a big black market there? Will Big Tobacco take full control of the market? It is clearly difficult to predict this right now with a study.
After 4 years of crazy growth, brands specializing in e-cigs are facing the challenge of maturity. 400 points of sale should disappear this year.
In 2015, the e-cigarette market in France will lose 10% of its turnover, reaching 355 million euros, according to the second edition of the study " The electronic cigarette market From our partner Xerfi. A document which also provides a glimpse of the future of the sector, using three forecast scenarios.
But before we turn to the future, let's take a look at the past. The roaring twenties, so much growth was there. Judge for yourself: to 395 million euros last year, the total turnover tripled between 2012 and 2014. Last year, it climbed another 43% over 12 months.
For three years, "it will have opened nearly 2 shops per day on average", write the authors of the study, for whom "the economy of the electronic cigarette can no longer be considered as marginal", since it represents now 2,2% of the tobacco products market.
But this euphoria could not last: "The first closures and changes in activity [of specialized shops] multiplied at the end of 2014-beginning of 2015. And the movement is set to grow: networks of specialists are inexorably forced to grow. consolidate, ”warns Xerfi. The number of points of sale, which reached 2 units last year, will fall by 406% in 17, to stand at around 2015.
Less 10% of CA, minus 17% of shops, one might think the e-cig market is doomed. In reality, he is at a crossroads. It can either develop and "gradually reach a mass market", or "fall back to focus on a niche of hardcore". Hence the construction by Xerfi of 3 scenarios by 2018, a low, a median and a high.
Favored by the research firm, the median scenario (50% probability) expects average annual growth of 8% to reach 450 million euros in total turnover in 2018. Excellent performance justified by "the very important growth reservoir (…): 50% of smokers have not yet tested electronic cigarettes ”, but which imply the realization of several hypotheses, visible in the table below.
Which brand is best placed to take advantage of the possible future boom? In terms of the number of establishments, here is the podium according to the data collected in May 2015 by Xerfi: J Well (159 points of sale), Clopinette (80 stores) and Yes Store (56 stores).
The study " The electronic cigarette market: outlook for 2018 and changes in the competitive landscape »Is published by Xerfi, independent publisher of sectoral economic studies.
Source : Journaldunet.com
