Duk da mummunan hoto, masana'antar taba tana ci gaba a kasuwannin hannayen jari. Sashin ya girma kusan sau 4 cikin sauri cikin shekaru goma fiye da ma'aunin S&P 500.
Shin taba zai zama sabon kwal ? Yayin da a hankali sarrafa kadara ke watsar da kwal zuwa ga mummunan makoma (farashin dumama gawayi ya ci gaba da faduwa a Turai, an raba shi da uku tun 2011), Axa ta sanar da yanke shawarar janyewa daga masana'antar taba ta hanyar sayar da biliyan 1,8. kudin Tarayyar Turai. Har ila yau, za ta daina sayan lamuni daga kungiyoyin da ke wannan yanki. Don haka Axa ya shiga Norway, wanda asusun arziƙin mallaka ya haramta sigari daga saka hannun jari a cikin 2010, saboda dalilai na ɗabi'a. A halin yanzu, hanyar Axa ba ta biyo bayan sanarwar da masu fafatawa da ita ba, amma ana iya yin mamakin ko a cikin dogon lokaci, taba ba zai fuskanci irin wannan lamari na kin amincewa da kwal ba. " Yana da wuya a ce. Ko ta yaya, wannan ita ce tambayar da ya kamata a yi a nan gaba a wannan fanni. ya gane Yves Maillot a Natixis AM.
Sanarwar lafiyar jama'a
Hakika, idan za a iya fahimtar wannan shawarar saboda dalilai na kiwon lafiyar jama'a, musamman ta bangaren mai inshorar da ke cikin wannan fanni, yana fuskantar kalubale kadan idan aka yi la'akari da kadarorin da ke cikin fannin ta fuskar kudi. " Masu saka hannun jari na iya yin mamaki game da haɗarin ƙarar da ke da alaƙa da taba. Wannan yana nuna sha'awar kwal a bayan COP 21, amma ba irin sadaukarwa ga masu zuba jari ba idan aka yi la'akari da yadda kasuwannin hannayen jari na hannun jarin taba. ", ya gane Catherine Garrigues a Allianz GI, wanda, " akwai tsadar damar gaske ".
Domin fannin yana yin kyau sosai a kasuwannin hannayen jari. Tun daga farkon shekara, alamar S&P 500 Taba ta sami 10,49% da 22,64% sama da shekara guda, yayin da a lokaci guda, S&P 500 index ya ɗauki 2,59% kawai a cikin 2016 kuma ya rasa ko da 0,70% sama da shekara guda. Ayyukan da aka maimaita cikin dogon lokaci, tare da matsakaicin riba na 229% sama da shekaru goma ga Philip Morris, Altria Group da Reynolds American, a kan 65% don mafi girman index. A cikin Turai, MSCI Turai Tobacco index yana da kyau a gaban Yuro Stoxx 50. Haka kuma, bisa ga wani binciken da Credit Suisse Research Institute, da sashen posted, tare da abin sha, mafi kyau sashi yi a Amurka tun ... 1900. ya canza zuwa +14,6% domin mako.
A quasi-wajibi
Wani sanannen aiki duk da cewa shan taba sigari ya ci gaba da raguwa a Amurka (-4% akan matsakaita na tsawon shekaru 10 a cewar Barclays), musamman a yanayin karuwar gasa daga sigari na lantarki. Sai dai farashin
sun nuna juriya mai ƙarfi kuma masana'antun sun sami damar samun sabbin kantuna, galibi a cikin ƙasashe masu tasowa, wanda a zahiri, a cewar Barclays, "sashe mai ban sha'awa sosai a cikin Amurka".
Don me? "Baya ga duk wani la'akari da lafiya da taba, ta hanyar ra'ayi mai sauƙi na tattalin arziki, taba yana wakiltar ɓangaren masu amfani da ba na cyclical. ", in ji Yves Maillot. " Yana amfana daga canje-canje na yau da kullun a cikin ciyarwar gida. Lokacin da ci gaban ya ragu a cikin kasashen da suka ci gaba, kasashe masu tasowa sun mamaye, tare da karuwar yawan jama'a a wadannan yankuna. Adadin masu amfani yana karuwa kuma wannan yana amfana da duk sassan amfani, gami da taba ".
Bugu da ƙari kuma, ɓangaren yana nuna ƙarfin maimaitawa don samar da tsabar kuɗi. " Waɗannan ɓangarori ne waɗanda ba lallai ba ne su samar da haɓaka mai ƙarfi ba, amma yana da kullun kuma yana ba da damar samun babban kuɗin kuɗi. », in ji Yves Maillot. Kuma a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci, don kasuwannin kuɗi, " mahallin ƙarancin riba mai ƙarancin riba yana fifita samfuran kasuwanci na kamfanoni masu cin gajiyar gani mai kyau". Wannan yana ba su damar musamman don aiwatar da manufar komawa ga masu hannun jari, musamman a Amurka, kamar yadda Catherine Garrigues ta tuna. " Abubuwan da aka samu na waɗannan hannun jari suna jawo hankalin masu saka hannun jari, waɗanda ke da ƙima. Suna da ingantaccen ci gaba tare da dawo da masu hannun jari na yau da kullun. Wannan jigo ne da ke yin kyau a kasuwanni a yanzu. ".
A ƙarshe, sashe ne da zai iya amfana daga guguwar ƙarfafawa a duniya, kamar yadda ake yi na giya. Domin yanki ne da ke amfana daga manyan shingen shiga, saboda ƙa'ida, kamar ƙasashen da ke son haɓaka fakitin tsaka tsaki. " Wannan yana kiyaye matsayin gasa ", ya jaddada Barclays wanda kuma ya yi imani da cewa" Hane-hane na talla yana sa ya fi wahala ƙirƙirar sabbin samfura ". Matsalolin shiga, ingantattun 'yan wasa tare da ikon haɓaka farashin su da karimci tare da masu hannun jari? Mafi kyawun nau'in kamfani da aka jera a cikin lokacin ƙin haɗari, koda Yves Maillot ya gane cewa " dogon tarihin kasuwar taba ba zai iya canzawa ba. Idan abubuwan tattalin arzikin da suka dace da amfani sun ci gaba, dole ne a yi la'akari da ƙayyadaddun wannan sashin. ". Axa ya zaba.
source : Saukarwa
