The market for smokeless nicotine products: between commercial opportunity and health controversy
As smoking rates decline globally, tobacco companies are exploring new ways to meet the persistent demand for nicotine. Sales of smokeless nicotine products, such as e-cigarettes and heated tobacco, are eating into those of traditional cigarettes. However, health authorities remain divided on the acceptance of these alternatives, which, while less deadly, can be just as addictive and have potentially harmful effects.
1. Tobacco company strategies
Philip Morris International Inc. (PMI) and British American Tobacco Plc (BAT), two industry leaders, have said they want to cut cigarette sales. In 2023, PMI CEO Jacek Olczak said cigarettes should belong in museums. PMI aims to have less than a third of its revenue come from cigarettes by 2030. BAT, meanwhile, aims to make half of its revenue from smokeless products by 2035. Yet the companies continue to sell billions of cigarettes each year, drawing accusations of hypocrisy from anti-smoking activists.
2. Decline in smoking
Global smoking rates were estimated at 33% among men and 7% among women in 2020, marking a significant decline since 1990. The 1964 U.S. Surgeon General's Report is often cited as the starting point for awareness of the risks of tobacco. By the late 1960s, a majority of Americans recognized the dangers of smoking, leading to global efforts to reduce tobacco use and improve public health.
3. Prevalence of smoking in the world
Smoking rates are higher in low- and middle-income countries, where about 80% of tobacco users reside. China, for example, has a smoking prevalence of 50% among men compared to just 2% among women. OECD countries have lower rates, with Sweden leading the way with just 6% of adults smoking in 2021. Strict government policies and the adoption of snus have contributed to this reduction.
4. Government anti-smoking policies
Since the 1970s, laws restricting smoking in public places have proliferated. By 2022, 74 countries had implemented complete bans on smoking in enclosed public spaces, compared to just 10 in 2007. Other measures include limiting cigarette advertising, imposing health warnings on packs, and taxing cigarette sales.
5. Attempts to prohibit cigarette sales
Bhutan was the first country to completely ban the sale of tobacco products in 2004, before lifting the ban in 2021 due to a thriving black market. New Zealand also attempted to ban the sale of cigarettes to anyone born after 2009, but the law was repealed a year later. The United Kingdom has proposed similar legislation to create a “tobacco-free generation.”
6. Smoke-free alternatives to cigarettes
Smokeless products, such as e-cigarettes and heated tobacco, are increasingly popular. E-cigarettes vaporize a solution containing nicotine, while heated tobacco products use heated tobacco capsules. Snus and nicotine pouches, such as those from the Zyn brand, offer oral alternatives. PMI bought Swedish Match for $16 billion, attracted by its snus and nicotine pouches.
7. Health arguments against smoke-free products
WHO considers all tobacco products to be unsafe. Nicotine can affect brain development in adolescents, and the long-term effects of smokeless products remain uncertain. Studies show that emissions from heated tobacco products contain harmful substances similar to those in cigarette smoke. Snus is associated with increased risks of cancer and heart disease.
8. Health arguments in favor of smoke-free products
Some experts believe that smokeless products can help reduce smoking. The NHS in the UK recommends the use of e-cigarettes as an aid to quitting smoking. However, the rise in vaping among young people is causing concern, prompting authorities to restrict flavours and disposable products targeting minors.
